A Two-Ball Ellsberg Paradox

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Brian Jabarian and Simon Lazarus

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Brian Jabarian and Simon Lazarus

Brian Jabarian and Simon Lazarus

A Two-Ball Ellsberg Paradox

By Brian Jabarian and Simon Lazarus

Sept. 18, 2023 | CESifo WP #10745


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by Antony Avram

 
 
Abstract

We conduct an incentivized experiment on a nationally representative US sample (N=708) to test whether people prefer to avoid ambiguity even when it means choosing dominated options. In contrast to the literature, we find that 55% of subjects prefer a risky act to an ambiguous act that always provides a larger probability of winning. Our experimental design shows that such a preference is not mainly due to a lack of understanding. We conclude that subjects avoid ambiguity per se rather than avoiding ambiguity because it may yield a worse outcome. Such behavior cannot be reconciled with existing models of ambiguity aversion in a straightforward manner.